Washington, D.C. – Three new Public Policy Polling surveys conducted among voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin find that President Biden is running ahead of Donald Trump in the Midwest and Rust Belt region. In a matchup with Trump, Biden comes out on top 48-44 in Michigan, 48-45 in Pennsylvania, and 48-44 in Wisconsin. Biden is especially popular with independents in Wisconsin, getting 48% of the vote versus Trump’s 41%.
Meanwhile, Trump’s approval ratings in these three states are significantly underwater in comparison to President Biden’s. Trump’s favorability rating among all voters is underwater by 23 points in Michigan (35-58), 16 points in Pennsylvania (38-54), and 20 points in Wisconsin (35-55). Among independents, Trump’s favorability rating is -25 in all three states.
House Republicans are in even worse shape, with a net job approval rating of -38 in Michigan (22-60), -35 in Pennsylvania (22-57), and -32 in Wisconsin (25-57). Independent voters disapprove of the job House Republicans are doing by 30 points in Michigan (23-53), 32 points in Pennsylvania (21-53), and 36 points in Wisconsin (22-58).
House Republicans’ impeachment inquiry into President Biden is highly unpopular with voters:
- Over two-thirds of voters in all three states (68% in Michigan, 70% in Pennsylvania, and 67% in Wisconsin) would rather Republicans in Congress focus more on addressing issues like inflation and the economy than on impeaching Biden. This includes 65% of independents in Michigan, 73% in Pennsylvania, and 62% in Wisconsin.
- Voters overwhelmingly agree with Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, who said, “Impeachment ought to be rare. This is not good for the country.” Those in agreement are 68% of voters in Michigan (including 71% of independents), 63% of voters in Pennsylvania (including 67% of independents), and 71% of voters in Wisconsin (including 66% of independents).
A majority (57%) of voters in the three states think Trump is more likely than Biden to deny the outcome of the next election if he loses. This includes 51% of independents in Michigan and 58% of independents in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A majority of voters (55% in Michigan, 54% in Pennsylvania, and 53% in Wisconsin) also think Trump is more likely than Biden to incite violence among his supporters if he loses the next election. Trump’s claims that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from him, and that the Capitol rioters are patriots make almost half of all voters (49% in Michigan, 46% in Pennsylvania, and 45% in Wisconsin) less likely to vote for him in the next election.
If Biden can carry Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin next fall, he will likely have enough to get to 270 electoral votes, making the results of this poll very significant and shows the importance of looking at key battleground polling.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 679 Michigan voters on behalf of Save My Country Action Fund from September 26-27, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 3.8%. 57% of interviews for the survey were conducted by text message and 43% by telephone.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 673 Pennsylvania voters on behalf of Save My Country Action Fund from September 25-26, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 3.8%. 57% of interviews for the survey were conducted by text message and 43% by telephone.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 673 Wisconsin voters on behalf of Save My Country Action Fund from September 25-26, 2023. The margin of error is +/- 3.8%. 58% of interviews for the survey were conducted by text message and 42% by telephone.
